A Pin for a 9-year Bubble?

Government and Your Money

I'm no fan of big government, but people often wonder: can the federal government's actions really affect my money?

Yes, it can. But probably not the way you think it does.

Are We Headed for Another Big Market Crash?

Are we headed for another big market crash?

Betteridge's Law of Headlines says no. But history—and the perceptive blogger Wealthy Accountant—says yes.

Over the past few months, I've been getting a bad feeling about the market. When everybody marvels at how well the stock market is doing, that's not usually a good sign. When dealing with something like the stock market, which is partially driven by irrational speculation and knee-jerk reaction to unpredictable events, the best play is to zig where others zag.

But hey, don't take it from me. Take it from the most successful investor alive:

Wise counsel, Warren Buffett...

Here's a link to the Wealthy Accountant's perspective. He does a good job of telling people not to time the market, but his caution against picking this moment to jump in with both feet is wise.

I left a comment on this article, to the effect that I suspect that a severe correction will occur in 2018. I hope I'm wrong, but the behavioral indicators (combined with the ever-increasing surge in the stock market) are veritably screaming that a downturn is coming.

From http://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years. 

Ten-year history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as of January 29, 2018. 

Check out that recent uptick! Looks like the makings of a bubble to me...

And here's a link to one summary of Joe Kennedy's famous (and possibly apocryphal) story. "When the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good."

I haven't seen any shoeshine boys lately, but I have seen a proliferation of blogs and other Internet "experts." I wonder how long they'll all last if the Dow Jones' 177-point drop of January 29th, 2018 precedes a continuous, month-long drop...

Long-term, my advice has been—and remains—to stay the course. But short-term...well, I'd recommend caution.

It's foolish to put all your eggs in one basket. Doubly so now that the stock market is almost certainly approaching the end of an impressive run!

In a time of exuberance about the market, you should not follow the herd. The greater stability of bonds are probably the better move at the moment.

But after people have lost lots of money and the general attitude about the market is somber...that's when it's especially important to remember that in the long-term, the market always goes up.

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Investing Peace of Mind

Maintaining Peace of Mind Despite Market Fluctuations

Every day, the stock market goes up and down like an angry mustang that doesn't want to be broken! Today was an example of a big downswing in the morning, followed by a near-full recovery later in the day:

screenshot of Google Finance Dow Jones Industrial Average report for April 11, 2017

screenshot of Google Finance S&P 500 report for April 11, 2017

Patience is the order of the day—every day! Especially with investing!

Should you trust the stock market? Pt I

Should you trust the stock market? Part I

Check out Part II here

Historically, the returns have been good on the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. But, as every financial advisor cautions, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Dow Jones (all-time, also note the log scale—this graph has a much steeper incline than it appears at first glance; see below):

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Dow Jones (all-time, labeled with some historical highlights):

from http://www.independent-stock-investing.com/images/DowChart2.png

S&P 500 (since 1950, including adjustment for inflation):

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index

Or, for those who would prefer an annualized chart of S&P 500 returns, here you go (all-time--note that the S&P 500 was called the "Composite Index" before 1957):

from http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/2016/01/05/8bc2c493-ba40-4703-9979-c19534cbae20/64b19a4e258194bd5d72f1b77e371301/s-p-500-return-through-2015.gif

Notably, John Bogle (the founder of The Vanguard Group, an investing company) is not optimistic in the short-term: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/john-bogle-says-you-wont-make-much-money-from-stocks-2015-11-05

So, should you be optimistic? Is it wise to invest in the stock market? Is the market really trustworthy?

You don't need my advice. Take a look at the graphs above and decide for yourself.