Thursday, February 1, 2018

Are We Headed for Another Big Market Crash?

Are we headed for another big market crash?

Betteridge's Law of Headlines says no. But history—and the perceptive blogger Wealthy Accountant—says yes.

Over the past few months, I've been getting a bad feeling about the market. When everybody marvels at how well the stock market is doing, that's not usually a good sign. When dealing with something like the stock market, which is partially driven by irrational speculation and knee-jerk reaction to unpredictable events, the best play is to zig where others zag.

But hey, don't take it from me. Take it from the most successful investor alive:

Wise counsel, Warren Buffett...

Here's a link to the Wealthy Accountant's perspective. He does a good job of telling people not to time the market, but his caution against picking this moment to jump in with both feet is wise.

I left a comment on this article, to the effect that I suspect that a severe correction will occur in 2018. I hope I'm wrong, but the behavioral indicators (combined with the ever-increasing surge in the stock market) are veritably screaming that a downturn is coming.

Ten-year history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as of January 29, 2018. 
Check out that recent uptick! Looks like the makings of a bubble to me...

And here's a link to one summary of Joe Kennedy's famous (and possibly apocryphal) story. "When the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good."

I haven't seen any shoeshine boys lately, but I have seen a proliferation of blogs and other Internet "experts." I wonder how long they'll all last if the Dow Jones' 177-point drop of January 29th, 2018 precedes a continuous, month-long drop...

Long-term, my advice has been—and remains—to stay the course. But short-term...well, I'd recommend caution.

It's foolish to put all your eggs in one basket. Doubly so now that the stock market is almost certainly approaching the end of an impressive run!

In a time of exuberance about the market, you should not follow the herd. The greater stability of bonds are probably the better move at the moment.

But after people have lost lots of money and the general attitude about the market is somber...that's when it's especially important to remember that in the long-term, the market always goes up.

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Thursday, January 25, 2018

The $17 Billion Fraud

The $17 Billion Fraud

Almost everybody has heard of Bernie Madoff, the infamous fraudulent "investor" who ran an elaborate Ponzi scheme. You probably have, too; his name was on the lips of a lot of people around 2008-2010, and his scheme was reported often in the news.

Madoff's fraudulent investment scheme was supposed to have been worth $65 billion, which makes this the largest fraudulent scheme ever perpetrated by an individual! In reality, however, people actually put roughly $17.5 billion of their own money into the scheme; the other $47.5 billion refers to profits that never actually existed and therefore cannot be recovered. [The taxes people paid on these fictitious profits are, of course, not recoverable either.]

Attorney Irving Picard is trying to recoup the $17 billion that investors put in. ABC News reports that, as of February 2016, he recovered just over $11 billion for investors who lost money. However, that process is inevitably difficult, as Yale accounting professor Dr. Rick Antle explains.

But do you really know what Madoff did?

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Should You Invest In Bitcoin?

Should You Invest In Bitcoin?

I've spent a while reading about Bitcoin, blockchain, and the underlying philosophy of cryptocurrencies.

Everybody's got an opinion, so I might as well weigh in and hopefully provide some perspective!

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

How to Invest

Investing: The Evidence

Want to get rich from investing?

Perhaps you've tried to read articles like this one and said, "Nope, too long," or perhaps you find the jargon too technical and headache-inducing!

If this describes you, you need to watch these brief videos!

Saturday, December 2, 2017

The Zen of Christmas

The Zen of Christmas

It's a truism of popular culture that everybody is rushing around before Christmas, trying to get the best presents, or the best deals, or both. As the thought goes, people are trying to cram 30 hours worth of stuff into a 24-hour day. Of course, this means that everybody is stressed!

I'm not.

Here's how I avoid the stress and enjoy the holidays!

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Millennials Get the Best Life Insurance Rates & Don't Even Know It!

Guest post
Today, we have a guest post from Danielle YB Vason of SheMakesCents. This opportunity came up courtesy of HealthIQ, a company that is focused on getting lower health insurance rates for health-conscious folks.

This post focuses on life insurance. Is it right for you? Well, frankly, it depends on your situation. If you have family members that depend on your income (in part or entirely), and/or if you have co-signers on student loans, then life insurance may be a good option for you to financially protect your family against disaster. Life insurance will only get more expensive as you get older!

However, if you do not have a family or student loan debt, then who would be the beneficiary of your life insurance policy? And why? So, as with all insurance products, your personal situation dictates whether it's a smart move or a rip-off.

Danielle's own post, with more detail on the topic, is available here.

Millennials Get the Best Rates on Life Insurance & Don’t Even Know It
                                                              —Danielle YB Vason, SheMakesCents

When you hear the term “life insurance,” what comes to mind?  Is it your parents’ and grandparents’ generation?  Is it a sad thought like death or the process of planning a funeral?  Or, is it something that you have on your to-do list to understand when you are “older” because you are not in that headspace right now?  

Thursday, October 26, 2017

A truly "smart" phone plan

A truly "smart" phone plan!

I used to pay too much!

My old cell phone plan was a $35/mo. prepaid service from Virgin Mobile, which ran on the Sprint network in my area. It worked well, and I liked Virgin Mobile just fine. The service in my area was seamless, and the price of $35 per month (plus tax) was pretty good. The phone itself was well-made, and I became a fan of HTC!

But when I moved to an area that Virgin Mobile did not service, I knew I'd have to switch. And, considering that my old phone (an HTC One V that cost me $80 in 2013) was getting painfully slow, it was a good excuse to upgrade.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Best Laptops (Fall 2017)

Great deals on great laptops!

Looking for a new high-performance laptop? Of course, you want one that will be reliable, cost-effective and capable of handling any task you need!

Well, as always, I've got you covered:

ASUS Flip TP501; $450

Here it is, folks: the laptop deal of the season!

Top headphone deals

Great deals on great headphones!
Do you hate earbuds?

Me too! They're often uncomfortable (especially for people with unusually small or large ear canals), they tend to fall out if you're physically active, they can damage your hearing, and all but the most expensive ones make music sound terrible!