Bubbles, Beanies, and Bullion: A Lesson from My Youth
I’m
just old enough to remember Beanie Babies, the State Quarter program,
Pokemon cards, and the inflation of the dot-com bubble. All at once.
And at
the time, I was just old enough to have begun learning about coin
collecting, a hobby I still pursue today. As part of my education on
coin collecting, I learned the basics of supply and demand, which
seemed not to apply during the run-up of the Big Bubble in the late
1990s.
Greaney's page still has the Web 1.0 look; a simple style that reminds you of a Geocities page (remember them?). However, it's still maintained and updated! Here's a list of articles, in chronological order (some really great stuff, too! I'm fond of the "Retire Early in the News" posted July 1, 1997): https://retireearlyhomepage.com/chronidx.html
You may have seen those commercials (like this one) advocating the use of a gold IRA or precious metals IRA. So...is it a good idea? Should you put your money in one?
The short answer? No. At least not more than a small portion of your money.
But why not?
Ah, now that is an interesting question!
1) Fees.
An important part of the Froogal Stoodent-approved investing method is to use low-fee options.
Storing your gold, silver, and platinum in an IRA is not a low-fee option. Some are better than others, but in every case, the company administering your IRA has to make money. That's not easy to do when they have to buy precious metals, pay for storage lockers and security, plus rent on the building, plus keep records of who owns what, and file reports with the government.
2) Performance.
Precious metals have a dismal performance record, even next to Treasury bonds. Stocks and REITs absolutely blow gold out of the water, in terms of performance over the past (pick a term - 20 years, 50 years, 100 years, or more).
3) Shenanigans.
You'll have to do some digging to make sure your claims are actually backed by physical gold. Otherwise, you're left holding worthless paper claims to a precious metal that doesn't actually exist.
I'd guess that a significant amount of these paper claims come from commodities traders (not so much from unscrupulous providers of precious metal IRAs), but that's only a guess.
Just in case you think that link above seems a little sketchy (it strikes me that way, too, though I find the analysis believable), here are various other sources saying something similar: Link 1, Link 2, Link 3, Link 4
4) Inconvenience.
Imagine a situation comes where you'll have to use your gold, because some sort of disaster (or series of disasters) makes ordinary banking impractical.
In this disaster scenario - the only time you'll actually NEED that gold - how quickly do you think they'll send your gold after you call for a redemption? When, of course, everybody else is ALSO calling them for a redemption?
The custodian will be overwhelmed, at the very moment when you need a quick response.
5) Distributions.
Once you reach a certain age - as of 2023, it's age 73 - you will have to sell some of your holdings, whether you want to or not. Whether the price is up or down. [In fairness, this applies to any holding in a traditional IRA or 401(k), including stocks and mutual funds.]
It's called an RMD, or required minimum distribution, and it's a government mandate, so that they can finally start collecting those taxes you've been putting off during the past 40+ years.
6) Requirements.
You can't just hold any type of gold or other precious metal. No, the federal government specifies certain purity requirements. They also penalize you if you hold collectibles, such as coins, in your precious metals IRA, even if the coin meets the purity requirements!
No, IF you want gold or other precious metal, you're probably better off having some physical coins or bars in your house, or in a safe-deposit box nearby. But, of course, each of those options comes with its own issues and challenges (and expenses).
What do I do? Me, personally?
Well, I've collected coins since I was in elementary school. Recently, I've been taking a small amount of money and buying older coins that interest me, as well as the occasional silver round or tenth-ounce gold coin. I keep the more valuable ones in a safe-deposit box.
But these purchases only amount to a very small portion of my net worth. Like, 0.4% of my net worth.
I think it's an interesting hobby, and also a way to preserve some purchasing power, in the event of some sort of economic collapse or hyperinflation. But the odds of those disasters are pretty small, so I only commit a relatively small amount of resources to the pursuit. Because, in the end, it's mainly a hobby.
In my own IRAs, I use index funds - low-cost stock, bond, and REIT funds. I, personally, do not have precious metals in my IRA. I prefer to have my precious metals within easy reach.
Enjoy this food for thought during the depths of winter! (At least, winter in the Northern Hemisphere. To readers in the Southern Hemisphere, such as Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa - we're all jealous of you, enjoying the nice summer weather!)
Without further ado:
These should induce rage among young people, and should probably induce rage among older people on behalf of younger people. But unless that rage gets converted into productive action, I'm not sure how much good it'll do.
A couple worthwhile lessons from the book The Millionaire Mind, written by Thomas J. Stanley, author of the bestselling The Millionaire Next Door: https://limpression.org/the-millionaire-mind/
Since crypto and FTX is in the news, I'll include these from CNBC:
Just stumbled across Joshua Kennon's blog, and it's filled with wisdom! Ignore his lessons at your own peril! P.S. the comments are usually excellent, too.
Essentially, there have always been two main paths to wealth: 1) make enormous amounts of income, or 2) careful stewardship of what resources you have. Essentially, prioritizing either 1) offense or 2) defense.
Joshua's analysis seems to focus mainly on 'offense,' or earning power. He's not wrong on that point, but consider my commentary on the case of MC Hammer, among others. Championships are generally won by well-rounded teams that play good offense and good defense; similarly, the wealthy almost always need to have some elements of both. But some will be best-suited, by disposition, to prioritize offense. Others, like myself, will be best-suited to prioritize defense.
Defense is probably the slower route to wealth, but it's also more sustainable during dark economic times. That is, you can't always depend on being able to make a big income. As such, risk-averse people like me tend to prefer an emphasis on cost control.
I was fond of his concept of 'economic drag' (as in 'drag show'). People who live two lives: one with a normal house and ordinary car, and another life, with much more extravagance, around other wealthy people. Related: stealth wealth.
My own aversion to debt would make me reluctant to behave in a similar manner. But I will admit that history suggests this would be a better course of action.
The Intelligent Investor: A
Froogal Stoodent review
The
Intelligent Investor by
Benjamin Graham – Notes and Quotes
Ninth in a series of book reviews
by The Froogal Stoodent
No
doubt thanks in part to Warren Buffett’s recommendation, Benjamin
Graham’s classic The Intelligent Investorremains
highly regarded by investors everywhere.
Now, I can say that I have read it
for myself. Twice, in fact.
So, do I recommend that you read it
too? Surely, if it’s good enough for the greatest investor alive,
it’s good enough for you, right?